Broncos' Rookie RB RJ Harvey Faces Uphill Battle Against Patriots' Strong Run Defense.
The Denver Broncos are heading into the AFC Conference Championship, where they will face off against the heavily favored New England Patriots. With that in mind, it's no wonder that Broncos rookie running back RJ Harvey is facing a tough test. The Patriots have been stout against the run, particularly when veteran defensive tackle Milton Williams has seen significant playing time.
In fact, the Patriots have held opposing running backs to just 52.6 yards per game at an average of 3.03 yards per carry in games that Williams has suited up. This trend suggests that Harvey will struggle to find his footing on the ground against New England's stingy run defense.
Harvey had a lackluster performance last week, managing just six carries for 20 yards against Buffalo's run defense. While he does have some upside, particularly if he can carve out opportunities in man/gap concepts, it's unlikely that he'll be able to surpass the under of 43.5 rushing yards set by BetMGM Sportsbook.
The fact that Harvey may lose carries to backup J.K. Dobbins also works against him. While Dobbins is still recovering from injury and hasn't been on the field in a while, it's clear that he has the potential to steal some rushing work from Harvey if he returns.
Given these factors, it seems unlikely that Harvey will be able to overcome his own inefficiency and struggles against New England's run defense. He's had fewer than 43.5 rushing yards in three straight games and five of eight contests without Dobbins, making the under on BetMGM Sportsbook a tempting player prop.
On the other hand, Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson is looking like a solid bet to clear his over of 46.5 rushing yards at BetMGM Sportsbook. With six straight games where he's eclipsed this mark, Stevenson has proven himself to be an efficient and effective runner on both man/gap concepts and zone rushing plays.
The Patriots have also been known to rest key starters in games that are out of hand, which could lead to a robust rushing output from Stevenson if the game script calls for it. Additionally, Denver's defense is worse against man/gap concepts than zone rushing plays, making Stevenson an even more effective runner on this particular concept.
Given these factors, it seems likely that Stevenson will be able to clear his over of 46.5 rushing yards at BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Denver Broncos are heading into the AFC Conference Championship, where they will face off against the heavily favored New England Patriots. With that in mind, it's no wonder that Broncos rookie running back RJ Harvey is facing a tough test. The Patriots have been stout against the run, particularly when veteran defensive tackle Milton Williams has seen significant playing time.
In fact, the Patriots have held opposing running backs to just 52.6 yards per game at an average of 3.03 yards per carry in games that Williams has suited up. This trend suggests that Harvey will struggle to find his footing on the ground against New England's stingy run defense.
Harvey had a lackluster performance last week, managing just six carries for 20 yards against Buffalo's run defense. While he does have some upside, particularly if he can carve out opportunities in man/gap concepts, it's unlikely that he'll be able to surpass the under of 43.5 rushing yards set by BetMGM Sportsbook.
The fact that Harvey may lose carries to backup J.K. Dobbins also works against him. While Dobbins is still recovering from injury and hasn't been on the field in a while, it's clear that he has the potential to steal some rushing work from Harvey if he returns.
Given these factors, it seems unlikely that Harvey will be able to overcome his own inefficiency and struggles against New England's run defense. He's had fewer than 43.5 rushing yards in three straight games and five of eight contests without Dobbins, making the under on BetMGM Sportsbook a tempting player prop.
On the other hand, Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson is looking like a solid bet to clear his over of 46.5 rushing yards at BetMGM Sportsbook. With six straight games where he's eclipsed this mark, Stevenson has proven himself to be an efficient and effective runner on both man/gap concepts and zone rushing plays.
The Patriots have also been known to rest key starters in games that are out of hand, which could lead to a robust rushing output from Stevenson if the game script calls for it. Additionally, Denver's defense is worse against man/gap concepts than zone rushing plays, making Stevenson an even more effective runner on this particular concept.
Given these factors, it seems likely that Stevenson will be able to clear his over of 46.5 rushing yards at BetMGM Sportsbook.
. I mean, they've been holding teams to like, 3 yards per carry and all that 
. It's hard to see how Harvey can break through that. Plus, with Dobbins potentially getting carries too, it's like they're splitting the workload and not giving one guy a real shot at running wild 
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! He's been doing really well in games where it matters, and the Patriots like to rest their starters when they're ahead. It's like they want to keep him fresh for the big plays 
. And with Denver's defense being worse at man/gap concepts... yeah, I think Stevenson is gonna have a field day 
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, can't say I'm surprised about the Patriots' run defense being solid, they've been doing that for years 
, who wouldn't want to bet on someone who's consistently producing like he does? and btw, if Harvey can't even get past 43.5 yards, I'm not sure how much of a threat the Broncos think they are 
nowadays it's all about outsmarting the defense. RJ Harvey is like a rookie version of Thurman Thomas back in the day, you know? Trying to find holes in the Patriots' defense instead of just brute force. But that run defense is legit, Milton Williams is like the Reggie White of today 
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... He's been on fire lately and I think the Patriots are gonna let him get some serious yardage if they're ahead or running out the clock 
. Their defense is so bad against man/gap concepts, it's just not fair to their runners 
... I'll probably stick with my money on Stevenson and hope he keeps his streak going 
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. And now he's got J.K. Dobbins lurking in the wings, waiting to steal some carries from him... not good for Harvey 
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. He's been on fire lately and I think he'll get a ton of work if the game script calls for it 
. And let's be real, Denver's defense is pretty weak against man/gap concepts... perfect opportunity for Stevenson to shine 
. But if you wanna take a shot at Stevenson, I say go for it! He's looking like a safe bet 
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. He's got that magic touch and with the Patriots resting their starters, watch out! 
. And yeah, J.K. Dobbins is back in the mix, which could be tough for Harvey to overcome 
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. He's been on fire lately, and his versatility with man/gap concepts and zone rushing plays makes him hard to stop 
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. Now, I think Rhamondre Stevenson on the other hand, is looking like a solid bet to smash that over of 46.5 rushing yards 
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, it's a tough ask 
. Plus, with the Patriots resting starters, Stevenson's gonna get plenty of carries 
... give it to Stevenson! 
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. Maybe he'll surprise us all but I'm keeping my expectations low 
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it's like the Pats just know how to shut down the run 
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And now, if J.K. Dobbins comes back and steals some carries, Harvey's already behind the 8-ball. Not exactly optimistic about his chances of going over that 43.5 yard mark