Companies often rely on intangible qualities like "executive presence" and "gravitas" when promoting employees, but these criteria can be subjective and biased. Research has shown that women consistently outperform men in their current roles, yet receive lower ratings for "potential." This is because the system rewards confident storytelling over substance.
When economists Alan Benson and his colleagues analyzed promotion data from nearly 30,000 management-track employees, they found that women labeled as having less potential went on to outperform male colleagues with identical scores. The problem compounds when feedback gets delivered, with large-scale text analysis conducted in 2024 by Textio showing that women's performance reviews disproportionately focus on personality traits and labels, such as "abrasive" or "too nice," rather than business impact.
This has led to a phenomenon known as the "confidence trap," where companies confuse confidence with competence. In promotion discussions, factors like executive presence and gravitas carry outsized weight, masking bias and rewarding self-promotion over substance. The loudest voice in the room isn't necessarily the most capable leader, and high performers vote with their feet when they realize the system rewards storytelling over results.
To fix this problem, companies need to adopt evidence-based advancement practices. This means treating potential as a hypothesis that requires proof, not a halo that justifies advancement. Companies can achieve this by defining potential concretely, auditing ratings that gate opportunity, replacing confidence tests with readiness trials, banning trait-only feedback in calibration, reframing the opportunity itself, and monitoring language.
The benefits of fixing this problem are clear: companies that convert performance into advancement using clean, auditable criteria build deeper leadership benches. They experience fewer flameouts among newly promoted managers. They shorten the time-to-impact on critical work. In markets that reward disciplined execution, competitive advantage may come down to something deceptively simple: raising the evidentiary bar for everyone.
Ultimately, the question is whether executives and boards are willing to measure what they currently take on faith and act on what they find. The data has settled that bias exists, but it's up to leaders to make a change. By adopting evidence-based advancement practices, companies can create a more level playing field for all employees and build a leadership pipeline that truly represents their organization's best talent.
The metrics that matter include promotion speed, stage conversion, first-year impact, time to full productivity, and audit gap. These metrics provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of a company's promotion system and help identify areas for improvement. By tracking these metrics and making data-driven decisions, companies can create a more efficient and effective promotion process that rewards substance over style.
In conclusion, the confidence trap is a significant problem in the corporate world, where intangible qualities like executive presence are given outsized weight when promoting employees. However, by adopting evidence-based advancement practices, companies can break free from this bias and build a leadership pipeline that truly represents their organization's best talent. It's time for companies to stop treating confidence as evidence of capability and start measuring what matters most: results.
When economists Alan Benson and his colleagues analyzed promotion data from nearly 30,000 management-track employees, they found that women labeled as having less potential went on to outperform male colleagues with identical scores. The problem compounds when feedback gets delivered, with large-scale text analysis conducted in 2024 by Textio showing that women's performance reviews disproportionately focus on personality traits and labels, such as "abrasive" or "too nice," rather than business impact.
This has led to a phenomenon known as the "confidence trap," where companies confuse confidence with competence. In promotion discussions, factors like executive presence and gravitas carry outsized weight, masking bias and rewarding self-promotion over substance. The loudest voice in the room isn't necessarily the most capable leader, and high performers vote with their feet when they realize the system rewards storytelling over results.
To fix this problem, companies need to adopt evidence-based advancement practices. This means treating potential as a hypothesis that requires proof, not a halo that justifies advancement. Companies can achieve this by defining potential concretely, auditing ratings that gate opportunity, replacing confidence tests with readiness trials, banning trait-only feedback in calibration, reframing the opportunity itself, and monitoring language.
The benefits of fixing this problem are clear: companies that convert performance into advancement using clean, auditable criteria build deeper leadership benches. They experience fewer flameouts among newly promoted managers. They shorten the time-to-impact on critical work. In markets that reward disciplined execution, competitive advantage may come down to something deceptively simple: raising the evidentiary bar for everyone.
Ultimately, the question is whether executives and boards are willing to measure what they currently take on faith and act on what they find. The data has settled that bias exists, but it's up to leaders to make a change. By adopting evidence-based advancement practices, companies can create a more level playing field for all employees and build a leadership pipeline that truly represents their organization's best talent.
The metrics that matter include promotion speed, stage conversion, first-year impact, time to full productivity, and audit gap. These metrics provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of a company's promotion system and help identify areas for improvement. By tracking these metrics and making data-driven decisions, companies can create a more efficient and effective promotion process that rewards substance over style.
In conclusion, the confidence trap is a significant problem in the corporate world, where intangible qualities like executive presence are given outsized weight when promoting employees. However, by adopting evidence-based advancement practices, companies can break free from this bias and build a leadership pipeline that truly represents their organization's best talent. It's time for companies to stop treating confidence as evidence of capability and start measuring what matters most: results.
we need to fix the fact that companies are so into "executive presence" and "gravitas" when promoting people, but really it's just a bunch of subjective bs 
like women are always getting told they're too nice or abrasive, but what about actual skills? 
I mean i've seen so many ppl get passed over for promotions because they don't have that "it" factor, but then they go on to do amazing things elsewhere 
. We need to start measuring what actually matters: results 
. it's time for us to stop confusing confidence with competence and start giving people a fair shot based on their actual skills and achievements 
It's like they're rewarding people for being likable instead of actually getting the job done. And don't even get me started on how women are always held back because they don't have that "executive presence" vibe... it's just not fair! 
We need to stop relying on intuition and start using data to make decisions about promotions. 
It's time for companies to focus on substance over style and create a more level playing field for everyone. 
. It's like the system is rewarding confidence over actual results! And then you have these super long performance reviews that focus on personality traits instead of what they actually do 
. It's time for companies to stop playing favorites and start measuring what really matters: results! 
women are being held back in promotions because of biases that are super obvious, yet still happen 
. It's not about being loud or confident, it's about getting the job done 
. By doing so, they can create a more level playing field for all employees and build a leadership pipeline that truly represents their organization's best talent 
. It's not rocket science – raising the evidentiary bar for everyone is key to competitive advantage 
.