US job market takes unexpected hit as November payrolls decline for first time.
A surprise slowdown in private sector hiring has left economists reeling. According to a report released by ADP, non-profit employer group and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, US private payrolls declined by 32,000 jobs in November, reversing an upwardly revised gain of 47,000 jobs seen in October.
The news came as a shock to many analysts, who had been expecting a modest increase. The consensus among economists surveyed by Reuters was for a 10,000-job gain after a rebound in October. Instead, the data suggests that labor market conditions may be worsening than initially thought.
Historically, ADP's monthly employment estimates have diverged from those produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, both reports are expected to release new numbers next month: the BLS will release its November employment report on December 16, while ADP will provide updates for October.
The delay in the BLS report was due to the recent federal government shutdown. The lack of data from the household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, means that October's jobless number will not be known.
Despite concerns over a deteriorating labor market, first-time applications for state unemployment benefits have remained steady, fueling the "no hire, no fire" narrative. Economists point to ongoing economic uncertainty caused by tariffs as a major factor in the slowdown, leaving the labor market feeling stagnant.
A surprise slowdown in private sector hiring has left economists reeling. According to a report released by ADP, non-profit employer group and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, US private payrolls declined by 32,000 jobs in November, reversing an upwardly revised gain of 47,000 jobs seen in October.
The news came as a shock to many analysts, who had been expecting a modest increase. The consensus among economists surveyed by Reuters was for a 10,000-job gain after a rebound in October. Instead, the data suggests that labor market conditions may be worsening than initially thought.
Historically, ADP's monthly employment estimates have diverged from those produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, both reports are expected to release new numbers next month: the BLS will release its November employment report on December 16, while ADP will provide updates for October.
The delay in the BLS report was due to the recent federal government shutdown. The lack of data from the household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, means that October's jobless number will not be known.
Despite concerns over a deteriorating labor market, first-time applications for state unemployment benefits have remained steady, fueling the "no hire, no fire" narrative. Economists point to ongoing economic uncertainty caused by tariffs as a major factor in the slowdown, leaving the labor market feeling stagnant.
I'm kinda worried about the US job market 
. This decline of 32,000 jobs is unexpected and might be a sign that things are slowing down 
. Economists were expecting an increase, not a decrease 
. What's going on? Is it due to tariffs or something else? 
I'm all about supporting people who are struggling, so I hope this slowdown doesn't affect anyone too much 
. Fingers crossed that the BLS report next month will give us more clarity and some good news! 
... just when you think things are going to pick up, BAM! Down goes the employment numbers 
. I'm not buying the whole "no hire, no fire" thing tho 
. If people aren't getting hired, they're not gonna get fired 
. It's all about the money 
... nobody wants to take a risk 
.
. And now there's this thing about tariffs causing economic uncertainty... like we didn't already know that 
. It's just so frustrating when things don't go as planned. I'm trying to stay calm but it's hard not to worry about the impact on people's lives 
.
. The job market's been all over the place lately, and it's like everyone's trying to predict what's gonna happen next. I mean, economists are always warning us about something - tariffs, inflation, recession... 
. I'm more worried about people who are actually losing their jobs - that's when things start to get real 
. Economists are all like "tariffs" this and "uncertainty" that, but what about some real policy solutions? It's one thing to point fingers, another to actually fix the problem 
.
- 32k jobs lost, anyone? 
i mean, who expected things to slow down that much? i've been saying it for ages, tariffs aren't helping the economy. now we're seeing it in the numbers. economists can talk all they want about the state of the labor market but when you look at the actual data, its hard to argue against it 
... economists were all like "oh, it's gonna be a small increase" but nope 
... first-time unemployment apps are steady so idk why everyone's making such a big deal 
... just hope it doesn't get too serious 
and have you noticed how steady first-time unemployment applications are? that's weird too. like the system is working fine, but we're still not getting back to normal. i'm telling you, it's more than just tariffs... there's something fishy here 