Russian President Vladimir Putin may have winced as news spread about Donald Trump's Venezuelan coup, but for him and his economic team, a far more pressing concern was oil prices. For decades, crude has lubricated the Russian economy, dwarfing gas exports to Europe in significance. As such, any threat of plummeting oil prices due to US plans to control Venezuela's rigs would be deeply unsettling.
However, some analysts argue that Russia might soon face increased competition in the global oil market. Venezuela boasts the world's largest proven reserves and could pump millions more barrels as early as this year, hitting global prices and squeezing Russian revenue.
US sanctions on major Russian oil companies like Rosneft and Lukoil have already weakened Moscow's coffers by reducing the value of oil sales earned in dollars. A strengthening rouble has not helped either. The government is thus increasingly reliant on exports to other countries for income.
A tougher stance on sanctions could prove catastrophic for Putin, particularly as Russia's financial position teeters precariously. Economists point out that after four years of war with Ukraine, the Russian economy resembles a "house of cards" that's vulnerable to collapse if enough economic pressure is applied.
Economic growth in Russia has slowed dramatically due to increased military spending and inflation, which peaked in the aftermath but soon subsided. High interest rates and looming tax hikes have added to the financial strain on ordinary Russians, who are seeing their household incomes stagnate.
Some fear that a similar fate could befall Russia if sanctions tighten further and oil prices plummet. However, experts argue that while Russian economic woes should not be underestimated, they also suggest that President Putin has shown remarkable resilience in managing the war effort.
Putin's government is effectively treating the economy as a "medically induced coma" โ meant to insulate it from external pressures. While much of Russia's state funds are already spent, and oil revenues have decreased significantly, he has found alternative ways to fund military operations through higher taxes on households and businesses.
The stakes remain high in Ukraine, where Russia continues its efforts to expand the war into new areas while keeping a promise of funding the conflict with domestic funds.
However, some analysts argue that Russia might soon face increased competition in the global oil market. Venezuela boasts the world's largest proven reserves and could pump millions more barrels as early as this year, hitting global prices and squeezing Russian revenue.
US sanctions on major Russian oil companies like Rosneft and Lukoil have already weakened Moscow's coffers by reducing the value of oil sales earned in dollars. A strengthening rouble has not helped either. The government is thus increasingly reliant on exports to other countries for income.
A tougher stance on sanctions could prove catastrophic for Putin, particularly as Russia's financial position teeters precariously. Economists point out that after four years of war with Ukraine, the Russian economy resembles a "house of cards" that's vulnerable to collapse if enough economic pressure is applied.
Economic growth in Russia has slowed dramatically due to increased military spending and inflation, which peaked in the aftermath but soon subsided. High interest rates and looming tax hikes have added to the financial strain on ordinary Russians, who are seeing their household incomes stagnate.
Some fear that a similar fate could befall Russia if sanctions tighten further and oil prices plummet. However, experts argue that while Russian economic woes should not be underestimated, they also suggest that President Putin has shown remarkable resilience in managing the war effort.
Putin's government is effectively treating the economy as a "medically induced coma" โ meant to insulate it from external pressures. While much of Russia's state funds are already spent, and oil revenues have decreased significantly, he has found alternative ways to fund military operations through higher taxes on households and businesses.
The stakes remain high in Ukraine, where Russia continues its efforts to expand the war into new areas while keeping a promise of funding the conflict with domestic funds.