Why Russia's economy is unlikely to collapse even if oil prices fall | Phillip Inman

Russian President Vladimir Putin may have winced as news spread about Donald Trump's Venezuelan coup, but for him and his economic team, a far more pressing concern was oil prices. For decades, crude has lubricated the Russian economy, dwarfing gas exports to Europe in significance. As such, any threat of plummeting oil prices due to US plans to control Venezuela's rigs would be deeply unsettling.

However, some analysts argue that Russia might soon face increased competition in the global oil market. Venezuela boasts the world's largest proven reserves and could pump millions more barrels as early as this year, hitting global prices and squeezing Russian revenue.

US sanctions on major Russian oil companies like Rosneft and Lukoil have already weakened Moscow's coffers by reducing the value of oil sales earned in dollars. A strengthening rouble has not helped either. The government is thus increasingly reliant on exports to other countries for income.

A tougher stance on sanctions could prove catastrophic for Putin, particularly as Russia's financial position teeters precariously. Economists point out that after four years of war with Ukraine, the Russian economy resembles a "house of cards" that's vulnerable to collapse if enough economic pressure is applied.

Economic growth in Russia has slowed dramatically due to increased military spending and inflation, which peaked in the aftermath but soon subsided. High interest rates and looming tax hikes have added to the financial strain on ordinary Russians, who are seeing their household incomes stagnate.

Some fear that a similar fate could befall Russia if sanctions tighten further and oil prices plummet. However, experts argue that while Russian economic woes should not be underestimated, they also suggest that President Putin has shown remarkable resilience in managing the war effort.

Putin's government is effectively treating the economy as a "medically induced coma" โ€“ meant to insulate it from external pressures. While much of Russia's state funds are already spent, and oil revenues have decreased significantly, he has found alternative ways to fund military operations through higher taxes on households and businesses.

The stakes remain high in Ukraine, where Russia continues its efforts to expand the war into new areas while keeping a promise of funding the conflict with domestic funds.
 
๐Ÿค” I mean, can't believe Putin's got his priorities straight... oil prices over saving lives in Ukraine? ๐Ÿ™„ Like, what's more valuable, folks? I get it, oil is lifeblood for Russia, but come on, man! There's gotta be some balance between lining those pockets and not getting people killed. ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ˜’

And let's be real, the "medically induced coma" analogy for the economy is... quite a thing. ๐Ÿค• They're basically putting Russia into hibernation, hoping to survive the economic storm. I'm not sure if that's going to work out, but hey, it's worth a shot, right? ๐Ÿ˜‚
 
๐Ÿค” I'm not sure if Russia's economy can withstand all these economic pressures ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ’ธ. I mean, Putin has already been dealing with oil prices being affected by US sanctions and Venezuela's rigs ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ’ฅ. Adding more competition in the global oil market from Venezuela could be a game-changer ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿฝ. The idea of Russia's economy being like a "house of cards" is terrifying ๐Ÿ˜ฑ. What if Putin can't find alternative ways to fund his military operations? It could spell disaster for him and his country ๐ŸŒช๏ธ.

I also feel bad for ordinary Russians, who are already struggling with stagnant household incomes and high taxes ๐Ÿคฏ. I hope they get some relief soon ๐Ÿ’•. The fact that Russia's economy is reliant on exports to other countries makes it so vulnerable to changes in global markets ๐ŸŒŽ.

But what worries me most is the uncertainty surrounding Putin's next move ๐Ÿ”ฎ. Will he try to tighten sanctions further or find alternative ways to support his war effort? Only time will tell โฐ.
 
I gotta say, this whole situation with Russia is super intense ๐Ÿคฏ๐Ÿ’ธ! With Venezuela's massive oil reserves coming online and US sanctions squeezing their oil sales, it's like a double whammy for Putin's economy ๐Ÿ’ฅ. And don't even get me started on the Russian rouble - it's been tanking lately ๐Ÿ˜ฌ. I mean, we all know Russia is heavily reliant on oil exports to stay afloat ๐ŸŒŠ. If things get really tough and sanctions tighten up, it could be disastrous ๐Ÿšจ. Putin's gotta walk this tightrope and balance his military spending with economic growth ๐ŸŽฏ. It's not an easy feat, especially considering their "house of cards" economy ๐Ÿ“‰. I guess we'll just have to keep an eye on things and see how Russia manages to navigate these choppy waters ๐Ÿ’ฆ #RussianEconomy #OilPrices #Venezuela #Sanctions #Putin
 
I'm worried about Putin's economic situation ๐Ÿค•. If oil prices plummet, it could be a disaster for him ๐ŸŒช๏ธ. I mean, we've seen what happens when economies are under pressure โ€“ inflation, recession... it's like a house of cards that can easily collapse ๐Ÿ . And with Ukraine still going on, the financial strain is already huge ๐Ÿ’ธ. Putin needs to think about his people and not just focus on military spending ๐Ÿ’”.
 
Ugh, another economy thread clogging up my feed... Can we talk about something else for once? Like how the platform's moderation team is doing an awful job of keeping spam and irrelevant posts in check? ๐Ÿคฏ I mean, I get it, we all want to discuss geopolitics, but do we have to waste space on economic jargon that just puts people to sleep? ๐Ÿ˜ด Can't we just condense these longwinded posts into shorter summaries or something? It's like, can we at least have a simple 'summary' thread or something? ๐Ÿค”
 
Wow ๐Ÿคฏ

Interesting... Russia's oil prices are like a double-edged sword - too much and they get richer, too little and their economy is toast ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ˜ฌ

They're already feeling the pinch with sanctions and dwindling oil sales, and if they lose control of Venezuela's rigs, it could be game over ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ’ฅ
 
๐Ÿค” so like russia is really worried about oil prices right now because it's such a big part of their economy... but at the same time, venezuela has tons of oil and could totally disrupt that if they start producing more ๐Ÿ’ฅ does anyone think russias economy is actually more stable than people are giving it credit for? i mean like they're already struggling with sanctions and inflation and all that... ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™€๏ธ also what's up with putin just using household taxes to fund his war efforts? isn't that kinda shady? ๐Ÿ˜
 
Ugh, I'm getting worried about our energy prices ๐Ÿคฏ! With Venezuela's oil reserves on the rise, it's like we're staring at a perfect storm โ›ˆ๏ธ. Russian President Putin might be dealing with economic woes, but let's not forget that oil is like lifeblood for Russia ๐Ÿฅ›. Any dip in global oil prices would be disastrous for them... and us, I guess ๐Ÿค”. Meanwhile, our own energy bills are already getting out of hand ๐Ÿ’ธ!
 
man... thinkin bout russia's economy is like tryin 2 hold water in ur hands ๐Ÿ˜ฉ Putin's gotta be worried 'bout oil prices and sanctions gettin hammered at his gov't from all sides. but at the same time, he's showin resilience in war efforts... that's somethin, right? ๐Ÿค” but for how long? economy's a house of cards, and if enough pressure's applied, it'll come crumblin down ๐Ÿ’ธ. Putin's got some tricks up his sleeve, like fundin the war effort thru taxes on households & businesses, but at what cost? ๐Ÿค‘ the ruble's already strugglin', and oil exports are gettin squeezed... it's a delicate balance act, bro ๐Ÿคฏ
 
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