Russia's economy is far from doomed, despite rising oil prices and looming sanctions that could further strangle its already struggling finances.
The Kremlin has managed to keep its economy afloat by implementing a strategy of "medically induced coma" - slowing growth to insulate the patient from external interference. While much of the government's reserves are spent and oil revenues have fallen, Putin has found internal resources to fill the void through higher taxes on households and businesses.
Russia's debt-to-GDP ratio is relatively modest, just below 20%, while its annual spending deficit is around 3.5%. The country has also been able to keep inflation in check, falling towards 6% despite soaring after the invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian economy may be a "junkyard" with ageing and dysfunctional factories, but it can still continue to fund the war effort without fearing economic collapse. China remains a key buyer of oil, while North Korea supplies people and kit. India has also maintained trade ties with Russia, despite the prospect of tougher sanctions.
Ukraine's financial situation is more precarious, with the promise of €90bn from the EU stretching its ability to support the conflict for between 18 months and two years. Putin, meanwhile, has sufficient reserves to keep paying young men and their families to fight on.
The real issue for Europe is that it needs to work harder to bring the war to an end. A tougher stance on trade may not trigger an economic collapse, but it could further isolate Russia and accelerate its decline. The EU must focus on tightening sanctions while providing Ukraine with the military support it needs to push back against Russian aggression.
The prospect of a Russian economy in crisis is often cited as a tool for Western leaders to use against Putin, but this narrative has proven overly simplistic. In reality, the Kremlin has managed to adapt and evolve its strategy to maintain control over the economy. Europe must be more nuanced in its approach to Russia, recognizing that economic pressure alone may not bring about collapse - but it can still accelerate Russia's decline and ultimately pave the way for a negotiated settlement.
The Kremlin has managed to keep its economy afloat by implementing a strategy of "medically induced coma" - slowing growth to insulate the patient from external interference. While much of the government's reserves are spent and oil revenues have fallen, Putin has found internal resources to fill the void through higher taxes on households and businesses.
Russia's debt-to-GDP ratio is relatively modest, just below 20%, while its annual spending deficit is around 3.5%. The country has also been able to keep inflation in check, falling towards 6% despite soaring after the invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian economy may be a "junkyard" with ageing and dysfunctional factories, but it can still continue to fund the war effort without fearing economic collapse. China remains a key buyer of oil, while North Korea supplies people and kit. India has also maintained trade ties with Russia, despite the prospect of tougher sanctions.
Ukraine's financial situation is more precarious, with the promise of €90bn from the EU stretching its ability to support the conflict for between 18 months and two years. Putin, meanwhile, has sufficient reserves to keep paying young men and their families to fight on.
The real issue for Europe is that it needs to work harder to bring the war to an end. A tougher stance on trade may not trigger an economic collapse, but it could further isolate Russia and accelerate its decline. The EU must focus on tightening sanctions while providing Ukraine with the military support it needs to push back against Russian aggression.
The prospect of a Russian economy in crisis is often cited as a tool for Western leaders to use against Putin, but this narrative has proven overly simplistic. In reality, the Kremlin has managed to adapt and evolve its strategy to maintain control over the economy. Europe must be more nuanced in its approach to Russia, recognizing that economic pressure alone may not bring about collapse - but it can still accelerate Russia's decline and ultimately pave the way for a negotiated settlement.
I think the EU's strategy towards Russia is like trying to pass a law without getting any votes - it just doesn't add up. They're all about tightening sanctions, but what about offering some kind of economic incentives? Like, we get you to stop supporting Ukraine and you get access to Western markets. It's like they're trying to hold Russia underwater with sanctions alone. 
Newsflash: Putin has a reputation for being super resourceful, he's not going down without a fight. The EU needs to be more strategic in its approach, think win-win instead of just punishing Russia. 
Russia's not as doomed as everyone thinks... they're like a zombie apocalypse movie where the undead keep shambling on despite all the bullets 
. Their economy is all about slowing down growth to avoid external shocks, kinda like a patient in a coma who can't wake up 
. Putin's found ways to plug the holes with higher taxes and still manages to fund his war machine 
. Can't have it both ways, but if they wanna stop Russia's decline, they gotta be more strategic than just applying pressure with sanctions 
and lets be real china north korea & india are all still buying from russia 
the problem is europe is so focused on punishing russia economically that they're forgetting about a few key things - china and north korea are still major players in the region, and india isn't going to drop russia anytime soon. but what's more worrying is that europe's approach might actually be helping russia in the long run 
by accelerating its decline, we can potentially push them towards a negotiated settlement instead of a full-blown economic collapse. it just goes to show that sometimes the best way forward isn't always through force or pressure, but rather through careful consideration and strategy 
. I mean, they're not entirely wrong that Putin's got some tricks up his sleeve, but it's like they think Russia's just gonna keel over from economic shock or something 
. Can't just keep slamming Russia with sanctions without a plan for what comes next... that's just gonna lead to more chaos 
, especially with all those sanctions looming over them. But, you know, I'm kinda nostalgic for the '90s when Russia was like that too 
. I mean, Putin's got some crazy skills when it comes to finding ways to keep his economy afloat 
. I'm not saying Russia's not worth holding accountable for what they're doing in Ukraine... but at the same time, it feels like we're just making things worse by piling on more sanctions 
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. Maybe instead of trying to crush Russia economically, they should try to find ways to bring them back from the brink 
. I mean, China's still buying all that oil, and North Korea's got some spare change lying around... it's not like Russia's economy is totally tapped out 
️. Those EU funds are gonna run out fast, and then what? 
their debt 2 GDP ratio is higher n they rely on EU aid. Europe needs 2 work w/ Russia 2 end the war ASAP 
, slowing down growth to avoid external shocks. But at the same time, I'm worried about the EU's approach, they need to be more strategic than just tightening sanctions. I mean, what's the end goal here? Is it really just about putting pressure on Russia or can we use this as an opportunity to negotiate a peace deal? 
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Putin's been getting creative with taxes to keep things afloat, but it's still a bit of a tightrope act. Meanwhile, Europe needs to step up its game and support Ukraine more. 
It can't just rely on sanctions alone to bring Russia down. Maybe if they're tougher but also provide military support, it could help speed up the decline and lead to a more peaceful solution... 
. Europe needs to stop playing a game of economic brinksmanship with Russia and start thinking about long-term solutions 
. That said, I do think the EU needs to take a tougher stance on sanctions – just not because it'll collapse Russia, but because it'll accelerate their decline and make them more receptive to negotiations 
, and he's managed to keep things from going off the rails. It's all about finding those internal resources and making some tough decisions on taxation 
. The EU needs to stop thinking it can just magically make Russia collapse with sanctions 
and start focusing on a more multi-faceted approach. I mean, China is still buying oil from them and India is keeping trade ties alive 
. It's not all doom and gloom for the Russian economy! 
. I'm not saying it's a great plan, but it shows Putin's got some tricks up his sleeve 
. We should be working towards a negotiated settlement, not just economic collapse 