Taxpayers May Receive $1,000 Bigger Refund in 2026 Due to New Tax Law
A recent analysis from financial services company Piper Sandler suggests that this year's tax refunds could be significantly higher due to a new tax and spending law enacted by President Trump last summer. The law has introduced various tax breaks, including eliminating taxes on overtime and tipped income, lifting the cap on state and local tax deductions from $10,000 to $40,000, and other benefits.
According to the analysis, the average tax refund for 2025 was $3,151, but with the new law in place, refunds could increase by about $1,000 per filer. This translates to a typical refund of around $4,151 per person. The increased refunds are largely driven by the fact that many Americans have not adjusted their withholding levels to reflect the new tax cuts.
Experts predict that this year's tax refunds will be one of the largest ever, with some estimates suggesting an additional $270 billion in tax refunds on top of the usual amount. However, it's worth noting that not all households will benefit equally from the new law. Middle- and upper-middle-income households are likely to see the biggest boost, while lower-income households may receive little or no benefit.
One reason for this disparity is the phase-out of certain tax breaks based on income level. For example, the higher state and local tax deduction cap begins to phase out for filers with annual incomes over $500,000. Additionally, some benefits are only available to households that itemize their taxes, which often requires a higher level of income.
As one expert pointed out, the impact of the new law will not be evenly distributed. While middle- and upper-income households may see significant increases in their refunds, lower-income households are unlikely to benefit as much. The lowest-earning households are also likely to see little or no benefit from parts of the new tax law due to income phase-outs and other factors.
Overall, while the increased refunds may bring some relief to taxpayers, it's essential for individuals to understand how the new tax law will affect their specific situation and adjust their withholding levels accordingly.
A recent analysis from financial services company Piper Sandler suggests that this year's tax refunds could be significantly higher due to a new tax and spending law enacted by President Trump last summer. The law has introduced various tax breaks, including eliminating taxes on overtime and tipped income, lifting the cap on state and local tax deductions from $10,000 to $40,000, and other benefits.
According to the analysis, the average tax refund for 2025 was $3,151, but with the new law in place, refunds could increase by about $1,000 per filer. This translates to a typical refund of around $4,151 per person. The increased refunds are largely driven by the fact that many Americans have not adjusted their withholding levels to reflect the new tax cuts.
Experts predict that this year's tax refunds will be one of the largest ever, with some estimates suggesting an additional $270 billion in tax refunds on top of the usual amount. However, it's worth noting that not all households will benefit equally from the new law. Middle- and upper-middle-income households are likely to see the biggest boost, while lower-income households may receive little or no benefit.
One reason for this disparity is the phase-out of certain tax breaks based on income level. For example, the higher state and local tax deduction cap begins to phase out for filers with annual incomes over $500,000. Additionally, some benefits are only available to households that itemize their taxes, which often requires a higher level of income.
As one expert pointed out, the impact of the new law will not be evenly distributed. While middle- and upper-income households may see significant increases in their refunds, lower-income households are unlikely to benefit as much. The lowest-earning households are also likely to see little or no benefit from parts of the new tax law due to income phase-outs and other factors.
Overall, while the increased refunds may bring some relief to taxpayers, it's essential for individuals to understand how the new tax law will affect their specific situation and adjust their withholding levels accordingly.