US Gas Prices Could Drop as Venezuela Oil Flows In, but Experts Caution Against Over-Reliance on New Supplies
A shipment of Venezuelan oil valued at $500 million has been sold to the US, marking the first time this has happened under the Trump administration. The move is part of an effort to tap into Venezuela's vast oil reserves, which are among the largest in the world.
However, questions remain over how much of a impact this will have on gas prices nationwide, currently averaging $2.67 per gallon. Economists are divided on when or if prices will rise due to increased Venezuelan crude.
Dr. Ian Lange, a professor of economics and business at the Colorado School of Mines, believes that Venezuela's oil could drive down prices in the future. "If I know prices are going to be lower in the future because I expect this Venezuelan crude, that'll impact prices now," he said.
On the other hand, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, suggests it's too early to predict a measurable impact on gas prices. "It's far too early for any measurable impact on what consumers are paying at the pump — whether prices go up or down — as it would likely take years to see a meaningful increase in oil output there," he wrote.
Venezuela has long been a significant oil producer, but its production levels have been severely impacted by sanctions and underinvestment. Before 2019, Venezuelan oil made up around 8% of US imports, but that share has dwindled significantly since then.
The country's current production capacity is capped at 750,000 barrels per day, a far cry from the 1-1.8 million barrels it supplied to the US in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Reaching those levels again would require significant investment and development of Venezuela's oil infrastructure.
While some experts argue that increased Venezuelan production could lead to lower gas prices due to increased competition with Canadian crude, others caution against over-relying on new supplies. "A big ramp-up in production from Venezuela would sort of add to an already oversupplied market," Dr. Lange said.
The US relies heavily on imports of heavy crude oil, which is used by refineries along the Gulf Coast. Venezuelan oil could potentially compete with Canadian crude for this market, but it's not clear if the country has the capacity to meet US demands.
As prices continue to fluctuate, one thing is certain: increased Venezuelan oil production will have a significant impact on the global oil supply chain. Whether that benefit trickles down to consumers remains to be seen.
A shipment of Venezuelan oil valued at $500 million has been sold to the US, marking the first time this has happened under the Trump administration. The move is part of an effort to tap into Venezuela's vast oil reserves, which are among the largest in the world.
However, questions remain over how much of a impact this will have on gas prices nationwide, currently averaging $2.67 per gallon. Economists are divided on when or if prices will rise due to increased Venezuelan crude.
Dr. Ian Lange, a professor of economics and business at the Colorado School of Mines, believes that Venezuela's oil could drive down prices in the future. "If I know prices are going to be lower in the future because I expect this Venezuelan crude, that'll impact prices now," he said.
On the other hand, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, suggests it's too early to predict a measurable impact on gas prices. "It's far too early for any measurable impact on what consumers are paying at the pump — whether prices go up or down — as it would likely take years to see a meaningful increase in oil output there," he wrote.
Venezuela has long been a significant oil producer, but its production levels have been severely impacted by sanctions and underinvestment. Before 2019, Venezuelan oil made up around 8% of US imports, but that share has dwindled significantly since then.
The country's current production capacity is capped at 750,000 barrels per day, a far cry from the 1-1.8 million barrels it supplied to the US in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Reaching those levels again would require significant investment and development of Venezuela's oil infrastructure.
While some experts argue that increased Venezuelan production could lead to lower gas prices due to increased competition with Canadian crude, others caution against over-relying on new supplies. "A big ramp-up in production from Venezuela would sort of add to an already oversupplied market," Dr. Lange said.
The US relies heavily on imports of heavy crude oil, which is used by refineries along the Gulf Coast. Venezuelan oil could potentially compete with Canadian crude for this market, but it's not clear if the country has the capacity to meet US demands.
As prices continue to fluctuate, one thing is certain: increased Venezuelan oil production will have a significant impact on the global oil supply chain. Whether that benefit trickles down to consumers remains to be seen.
and i'm kinda curious about how it's gonna affect gas prices nationwide... seems like some experts are saying it could drive 'em down, but others think we should be cautious 'cause it's not like venezuela's production levels have been super stable in the past 
! It's like, a big deal for the economy and stuff. I mean, $500 million is a lot of cash 
. But at the same time, I'm also kinda worried that we're gonna be counting on it too much 
. Like, what if it doesn't live up to expectations? Will gas prices really drop or are they just gonna stay the same? 
. Some people think it'll help us out in the long run, but others say we should be careful because it might not be enough 
. I guess only time will tell if it's all gonna work out 
. One thing's for sure though, it's gonna make a big difference in the global oil supply chain 
!
. And have you seen those refinery capacities? They're not exactly overflowing with capacity. Let's not count our chickens before they hatch, folks 
. I'm still keeping an eye on this one and waiting for some hard data before I start jumping up and down about lower gas prices 
i mean, $500 million is a pretty penny and if they can get their production up then maybe we'll see prices go down. but at the same time, experts are all like "hold on, guys, this could be too good to be true" and i'm over here like "yeah, yeah, let's just get some cheap oil in here 
what if new supplies don't make a huge dent in oil demand like experts think? 
maybe the market's just gonna balance itself out 
gotta be patient and see how it all plays out 
I'm not buying it (pun intended, 2.67 a gallon is crazy already). Experts are all over the place on this too - some say it'll drive prices down, others say nope, it's still gonna be up. I get why they're cautious about relying on new supplies though, with Venezuela's oil production being so limited and all that. It's like, we can't just keep counting on one ship to save the day 
. What if it's not enough? What if it makes things worse? Not sure what to make of this whole thing...
!
. and even then, how much of an impact will it really have on prices nationwide? its all pretty uncertain atm 
! $500 million shipment of Venezuela oil is like a big deal 
, but what's gonna happen when it actually arrives? Will US gas prices drop and then bounce back up again? I'm thinking 2025 is all about supply chain disruptions and oil market swings 
.
. We don't wanna put all our eggs in one basket, you know? What if they can't keep up with demand? Or what if it's not even worth the investment? 
.
. It's like, can't we just agree on something for once? 
I'm gonna go with... gas prices will drop, no way! 
also, 750k barrels per day is still super low compared to what venezuela used to produce back in the late 90s and early 2000s. i guess only time will tell if this will be a game changer for gas prices 
who knows what other surprises 2025 has in store for us? 