Russia is already secretly working to bypass US sanctions meant to cut off its cheap oil supplies to India, according to industry experts who warn that the latest penalties have not halted the country's oil imports from Russia. The move comes as US President Donald Trump has taken aim at Indian refiners with 25% tariffs on Russian crude and threatened to impose even harsher penalties unless they back down.
Despite the sanctions, which targeted major Russian oil exporters Rosneft and Lukoil, India's imports of Russian oil decreased only by a third from an average of 1.7 million barrels per day in December to around 1.2 million barrels per day. Experts say that this decrease may not be enough to stop the supply chain reorganization efforts.
Russia has been seen shifting its oil supplies through new, smaller exporters that can avoid US sanctions, which aim to disrupt the flow of Russian crude to India's refineries. These shadow middlemen would allow Indian refiners to continue importing oil from Russia without being sanctioned by the US.
"The new players are emerging, which is a sign that Russia is already trying to reorganise the supply chain," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler. "They will try to bypass these sanctions as much as they can." Experts warn it may only take two or three months for the full supply chain to get reorganized and most barrels supplied by companies not affiliated with Rosneft or Lukoil.
Despite the US's efforts, India is unlikely to abandon its reliance on cheap Russian oil entirely. The discounts offered by Russian crude are hard to resist, particularly after falling even further following the sanctions. For Indian refiners willing to take the risk, buying Russian oil could represent savings of almost $4 billion per year.
One exception has been Reliance, India's largest private oil company, which publicly declared it would no longer import Russian crude into its Jamnagar refinery. However, with EU sanctions looming over Russian-origin oil processed in a third country being banned from the bloc, there may be an opportunity for Reliance to resume purchases of Venezuelan oil.
The US's actions have presented a well-timed chance for companies like Reliance, which could benefit from the authorization to buy oil from Venezuela. The Indian government has not issued a direct mandate for refiners on Russian oil but instead encouraged them to act in their own best interests.
Despite the sanctions, which targeted major Russian oil exporters Rosneft and Lukoil, India's imports of Russian oil decreased only by a third from an average of 1.7 million barrels per day in December to around 1.2 million barrels per day. Experts say that this decrease may not be enough to stop the supply chain reorganization efforts.
Russia has been seen shifting its oil supplies through new, smaller exporters that can avoid US sanctions, which aim to disrupt the flow of Russian crude to India's refineries. These shadow middlemen would allow Indian refiners to continue importing oil from Russia without being sanctioned by the US.
"The new players are emerging, which is a sign that Russia is already trying to reorganise the supply chain," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler. "They will try to bypass these sanctions as much as they can." Experts warn it may only take two or three months for the full supply chain to get reorganized and most barrels supplied by companies not affiliated with Rosneft or Lukoil.
Despite the US's efforts, India is unlikely to abandon its reliance on cheap Russian oil entirely. The discounts offered by Russian crude are hard to resist, particularly after falling even further following the sanctions. For Indian refiners willing to take the risk, buying Russian oil could represent savings of almost $4 billion per year.
One exception has been Reliance, India's largest private oil company, which publicly declared it would no longer import Russian crude into its Jamnagar refinery. However, with EU sanctions looming over Russian-origin oil processed in a third country being banned from the bloc, there may be an opportunity for Reliance to resume purchases of Venezuelan oil.
The US's actions have presented a well-timed chance for companies like Reliance, which could benefit from the authorization to buy oil from Venezuela. The Indian government has not issued a direct mandate for refiners on Russian oil but instead encouraged them to act in their own best interests.
... so now they're trying to find ways to get around those sanctions on russian oil 
. i mean, can't we just have a simple straight forward conversation about trade agreements instead of all this backroom dealing? 
anyway, it seems like india's got some options now - maybe they'll be able to score some cheap venezuelan oil instead? 
that'd be a nice change of pace from the russian stuff. what's next, are we gonna see more countries playing this game too? 
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. It's all about saving a few bucks, right? I've got some doubts about Reliance deciding not to import Russian crude - are they just trying to play both sides? 
I mean, yeah, Rosneft and Lukoil are still getting slammed, but Russia's just gonna keep finding ways to supply oil, even if it means going through some dodgy middlemen. It's all about the benjamins, baby 
". This whole thing is a total game of cat and mouse between the US, Russia, and India... and it looks like India's just gonna keep on trucking with those Russian imports 
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And Reliance is smart to be looking into other options like Venezuelan oil 
. But it's also a bit worrying that the US is trying to exert this kind of control over India's energy market 
. Anyway, I guess we'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out 
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cant say im surprised tho, russia has always been pretty good at adapting to sanctions 
. And honestly, it's good for companies like Reliance to have this opportunity to buy Venezuelan oil, maybe they can avoid some of those risks 
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. I mean, who needs a third of the oil supply when you can get 80% at a cheaper price? Russia is already playing the long game here, and those 'shadow middlemen' are just the beginning 
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- good luck with that!
. It's like trying to juggle multiple balls at once - you gotta keep everything under control or it all falls apart 
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. They're finding new ways to get around the sanctions, and it's a testament to their resilience 
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... like, we need that stuff for our economy and stuff, but at the same time, I don't wanna be all 'Russia is bad' 
, but at the same time, I'm not sure if it'll stick 
like how can russia just find new ways to get around those sanctions 
anyway i think indians are gonna stick with russian oil 'cause let's be real, the discounts are too good to pass up 
Russia is defo gonna find ways to get around these US sanctions! They're like, "Oh no, we can't deal with you" and Russia is all, "I got this!" 
With all the new middlemen coming up, it's only a matter of time before they figure out how to bypass the sanctions. I mean, $4 billion per year in savings for Indian refiners? That's a pretty good reason to take the risk!