US Sanctions on Russian Oil Imports to India Are Already Showing Signs of Weakening.
Russia has been working behind the scenes to circumvent US sanctions and ensure that its cheap crude oil continues to flow into India, despite the tensions between Washington and New Delhi. The US imposed punitive tariffs on Indian imports, threatening to impose even higher penalties if India did not halt its reliance on Russian oil. However, the Indian government refused to back down, maintaining that it would not be dictated to over its energy policies.
Industry experts believe that these sanctions have had an initial impact, with a significant drop in Russia's oil exports to India. But they also warn that this is unlikely to be the end of the story. Russia has already begun reorganising its supply chain to allow countries such as India to circumvent US sanctions. New Russian oil exporters are emerging, and these shadow middlemen are already dominating exports.
Analysts say that it's only a matter of time before most of the barrels are supplied by companies that are not Rosneft or Lukoil, the two largest Russian oil exporters. The Indian government has taken no direct action to stop imports from Russia, but is instead encouraging state and private refineries to act in their own interests.
The low price of Russian oil is proving too enticing for India's refineries to resist. The discounts on Russian crude have dropped significantly since US sanctions were imposed, making it $9 or $10 per barrel cheaper than oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq. For companies willing to take the risk, buying Russian oil could represent savings of almost $4 billion over a year.
Analysts expect that imports of Russian oil will soon return to previous levels, at least for India's public sector. The global oil market is also beginning to price in the expectation that sanctions enforcement will be limited. One notable exception is Reliance, India's biggest private oil company, which has publicly declared it would no longer import Russian crude into its Jamnagar refinery.
However, with Trump's recent actions in Venezuela and the US capture of Nicolás Maduro, analysts say that this could present a well-timed opportunity for Reliance to resume purchases of Venezuelan oil, which India had previously exported before sanctions were brought in. The US has already begun talks with Indian companies, including Reliance, about authorising them to buy oil from sanctioned countries in a compliant manner.
Russia has been working behind the scenes to circumvent US sanctions and ensure that its cheap crude oil continues to flow into India, despite the tensions between Washington and New Delhi. The US imposed punitive tariffs on Indian imports, threatening to impose even higher penalties if India did not halt its reliance on Russian oil. However, the Indian government refused to back down, maintaining that it would not be dictated to over its energy policies.
Industry experts believe that these sanctions have had an initial impact, with a significant drop in Russia's oil exports to India. But they also warn that this is unlikely to be the end of the story. Russia has already begun reorganising its supply chain to allow countries such as India to circumvent US sanctions. New Russian oil exporters are emerging, and these shadow middlemen are already dominating exports.
Analysts say that it's only a matter of time before most of the barrels are supplied by companies that are not Rosneft or Lukoil, the two largest Russian oil exporters. The Indian government has taken no direct action to stop imports from Russia, but is instead encouraging state and private refineries to act in their own interests.
The low price of Russian oil is proving too enticing for India's refineries to resist. The discounts on Russian crude have dropped significantly since US sanctions were imposed, making it $9 or $10 per barrel cheaper than oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq. For companies willing to take the risk, buying Russian oil could represent savings of almost $4 billion over a year.
Analysts expect that imports of Russian oil will soon return to previous levels, at least for India's public sector. The global oil market is also beginning to price in the expectation that sanctions enforcement will be limited. One notable exception is Reliance, India's biggest private oil company, which has publicly declared it would no longer import Russian crude into its Jamnagar refinery.
However, with Trump's recent actions in Venezuela and the US capture of Nicolás Maduro, analysts say that this could present a well-timed opportunity for Reliance to resume purchases of Venezuelan oil, which India had previously exported before sanctions were brought in. The US has already begun talks with Indian companies, including Reliance, about authorising them to buy oil from sanctioned countries in a compliant manner.
come on guys, cant they just leave india alone? its like they think we have a special button that says "i dont want russian oil" and they're gonna make us pay for it? $4 billion is a huge amount of money, you can't just ignore the deals being made between russians and indians. 
what's next, will china start to put pressure on india too? and btw why do indian companies have to act in their own interests while the govt is sitting back? seems unfair 
This is exactly what I've been saying - the free market can't be controlled by a single entity like the US government. Russia's cleverly finding ways around those sanctions and India's just being smart about its own energy needs. The whole thing is a perfect example of how trade works, not politics. And let's be real, Reliance is just playing both sides because that's what businesses do - they look for opportunities to grow and save money. Meanwhile, the US is trying to flex its muscles by talking about sanctions and whatnot... 
So I was reading this article about the US sanctions on Russian oil imports to India and I'm like... 
They're already finding new ways around the sanctions 
. Like, did you know that there are these shadow middlemen emerging? 
They're basically just proxy companies set up by Russian oligarchs to export oil without having to deal with US sanctions. It's like they're using a VPN for their oil exports 
. 
The discounts on Russian crude have dropped significantly since the sanctions were imposed, making it $9-$10 per barrel cheaper than oil from countries like Saudi Arabia or Iraq 
.
. However, with Trump's recent actions in Venezuela and the US capture of Nicolás Maduro, analysts say this could be a great opportunity for Reliance to resume purchases of Venezuelan oil 
! 
think the us is gonna make this a bigger deal than it needs to be... india's got the money and the infrastructure to handle russian oil, plus they're not really hurting anyone by taking advantage of cheaper prices 
. also, what's with all these sanctions enforcement talks? 
but now that Trump is all over Venezuela, who knows if that changes?
. It's like the US is trying to control everything, but they can't even keep Russia from sneaking around their sanctions 
. Those companies in the middle are already finding ways to get around the sanctions and make a profit 
. It's all about who you know and where you get your oil from now - there are these new middlemen popping up who are basically creating their own supply chain to get Russian oil to India 
. It's all about adaptability and finding ways to get around the rules when you want something badly 
So it looks like the US is trying to be like a nagging aunt - "don't drink Russian oil, it's bad for you" 
But India's all like "fine, I'll just buy some from Russia and save $$$ 
It's like the US is trying to be the energy police, but India's all "nope, we'll just find our own way" 
. And honestly, who knows what's going on with Venezuela and all that drama 
? I guess it's like a big game of global oil roulette 
- where will the oil come from next? 
? The Indian government is playing it cool, not wanting to get told what to do by the Yanks 
. But let's be real, Russia's just gonna keep on trucking with its new "shadow middlemen" 
. I guess we'll have to wait and see how this all plays out... but one thing's for sure - my wallet's not complaining about those discounted Russian barrels 