India's dependence on cheap Russian crude oil is at risk as Moscow seeks ways to circumvent US sanctions. The latest US move has left Indian refiners reeling, with imports dropping by nearly a third since mid-November. However, industry experts say the impact of the sanctions may be short-lived.
Russia has already begun reorganising its supply chain to allow countries like India to bypass the US sanctions, which target companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two largest oil exporters. New players have emerged, dominating exports and posing a challenge to the sanctions' effectiveness.
These shadow middlemen are likely to dominate the supply chain in the coming months, say analysts. "It looks like the new players are emerging, which is a sign that Russia is already trying to reorganise the supply chain," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head crude oil analyst at Kpler. "Obviously the Russians are not going to sit and just watch the sanctions take effect, they will try to bypass them as much as they can."
The low price of Russian oil has made it an attractive option for Indian refineries, with discounts reaching $9 or $10 per barrel compared to oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq. The savings are significant, with imports expected to return to pre-sanctions levels in the coming months.
Reliance, India's largest private oil company, has taken a different approach, publicly declaring it would no longer import Russian crude into its Jamnagar refinery since November. However, analysts say this decision may be linked to EU sanctions preventing Russian-origin oil processed in a third country from being allowed into the bloc.
The US, however, is still looking for ways to restrict India's imports of Russian oil. Threats to impose 500% tariffs and withdraw from several India-led global initiatives have been made, but industry experts say these measures may not be effective in disrupting the flow of cheap Russian oil to India.
As tensions between Russia and the US continue, one thing is clear: Moscow will stop at nothing to ensure its energy exports reach Indian refineries.
Russia has already begun reorganising its supply chain to allow countries like India to bypass the US sanctions, which target companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two largest oil exporters. New players have emerged, dominating exports and posing a challenge to the sanctions' effectiveness.
These shadow middlemen are likely to dominate the supply chain in the coming months, say analysts. "It looks like the new players are emerging, which is a sign that Russia is already trying to reorganise the supply chain," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head crude oil analyst at Kpler. "Obviously the Russians are not going to sit and just watch the sanctions take effect, they will try to bypass them as much as they can."
The low price of Russian oil has made it an attractive option for Indian refineries, with discounts reaching $9 or $10 per barrel compared to oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq. The savings are significant, with imports expected to return to pre-sanctions levels in the coming months.
Reliance, India's largest private oil company, has taken a different approach, publicly declaring it would no longer import Russian crude into its Jamnagar refinery since November. However, analysts say this decision may be linked to EU sanctions preventing Russian-origin oil processed in a third country from being allowed into the bloc.
The US, however, is still looking for ways to restrict India's imports of Russian oil. Threats to impose 500% tariffs and withdraw from several India-led global initiatives have been made, but industry experts say these measures may not be effective in disrupting the flow of cheap Russian oil to India.
As tensions between Russia and the US continue, one thing is clear: Moscow will stop at nothing to ensure its energy exports reach Indian refineries.
I think it's unlikely that the sanctions are going to completely cut off India's access to cheap Russian crude oil. Companies like Rosneft and Lukoil might be targeted, but Russia has already found ways to reorganize their supply chain so that other players can fill the gap 
. And with those shadow middlemen emerging, it looks like they're gonna dominate the market soon 
. India's refineries just need to adapt and find new suppliers if they want to keep saving on oil prices 
. It's a cat-and-mouse game between Russia and the US, but one thing is for sure: cheap oil is too tempting to resist 
.
those shadow middlemen are a big deal, and i'm not sure how much of a pain they'll be for indian refiners... still, the savings from russian oil can't be ignored - it's like $9-10 per barrel cheaper than saudi or iraqi oil! 
The way India's just going about this whole Russian oil debacle is a bit wild 
. I mean, Reliance goes all out and stops imports, but then other guys start playing the shadow middleman role? It's like they're trying to outsmart the sanctions 
. And don't even get me started on these 500% tariffs - that's just laughable 
. The US sanctions are definitely having an impact, but I don't think they'll keep Indian refiners out for long 
. Russia is smart and they're already finding ways to work around the sanctions. Those new players that are emerging in the supply chain? Big deal! Moscow will just find another way to get its oil to India 
. The US might try to play hardball, but Russia's got this one covered 
.
. it's like they say - when life gives you lemons, make lemonade (or in this case, when sanctions are imposed, find a way to bypass 'em) 
.