The last major nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia, New START, is set to expire on Wednesday. The 15-year-old treaty placed limits on both countries' arsenals of deployed nuclear warheads and launchers, with the aim of reducing the risk of nuclear conflict.
US-Russia tensions have made it difficult to negotiate a follow-up to the agreement, particularly over the war in Ukraine. However, Rose Gottemoeller, who led the original New START negotiations, says that Washington and Moscow have been able to separate the nuclear issue from other crises in the past.
President Donald Trump has spoken about holding "denuclearization" talks with Russia and China, but there appears to be little progress toward reviving nuclear diplomacy. The US and Russia still possess the overwhelming majority of the world's nukes, but this could change as China rapidly builds up its own nuclear arsenal.
The expiration of New START raises concerns that the era of arms races may return. Without limits on deployed warheads and launchers, both countries could increase their nuclear arsenals, leading to a destabilizing dynamic in global politics.
While there is hope for getting nuclear talks back on track, it seems unlikely at the moment. The Trump administration's approach to diplomacy has been characterized by bluster and a lack of clear plans for reviving nuclear arms control with Russia.
New technologies, such as hypersonic missiles and artificial intelligence integration into command-and-control systems, could complicate future arms control negotiations or change the type of agreements sought going forward. Gottemoeller notes that new technologies can improve monitoring and verification, but also raise concerns about first-strike stability.
Looking back on the past 15 years, it's clear that steps could have been taken to prevent the current situation. The Obama administration's Prague Initiative was ambitious, but ultimately derailed when Putin signaled a lack of willingness to negotiate with the US. The relationship between Washington and Moscow has continued to deteriorate since then.
As China rapidly builds up its own nuclear arsenal, there is growing concern about the complex "three-body problem" for arms control. Gottemoeller warns that the numbers are still too disparate between the US, Russia, and China, making it difficult to bring them together in negotiations.
While there have been some positive developments, such as Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi publicly rebuking Putin over nuclear weapons, it's unclear whether these efforts will be enough to prevent a new arms race. Gottemoeller notes that the key is for the US, Russia, and China to work together on nuclear stability, given the technological advancements and global tensions.
Ultimately, the expiration of New START represents a significant moment in the history of US-Russia relations. It's unclear what will happen next, but it's clear that the world is moving towards a new era of nuclear politics, one that could be more unstable and unpredictable than ever before.
US-Russia tensions have made it difficult to negotiate a follow-up to the agreement, particularly over the war in Ukraine. However, Rose Gottemoeller, who led the original New START negotiations, says that Washington and Moscow have been able to separate the nuclear issue from other crises in the past.
President Donald Trump has spoken about holding "denuclearization" talks with Russia and China, but there appears to be little progress toward reviving nuclear diplomacy. The US and Russia still possess the overwhelming majority of the world's nukes, but this could change as China rapidly builds up its own nuclear arsenal.
The expiration of New START raises concerns that the era of arms races may return. Without limits on deployed warheads and launchers, both countries could increase their nuclear arsenals, leading to a destabilizing dynamic in global politics.
While there is hope for getting nuclear talks back on track, it seems unlikely at the moment. The Trump administration's approach to diplomacy has been characterized by bluster and a lack of clear plans for reviving nuclear arms control with Russia.
New technologies, such as hypersonic missiles and artificial intelligence integration into command-and-control systems, could complicate future arms control negotiations or change the type of agreements sought going forward. Gottemoeller notes that new technologies can improve monitoring and verification, but also raise concerns about first-strike stability.
Looking back on the past 15 years, it's clear that steps could have been taken to prevent the current situation. The Obama administration's Prague Initiative was ambitious, but ultimately derailed when Putin signaled a lack of willingness to negotiate with the US. The relationship between Washington and Moscow has continued to deteriorate since then.
As China rapidly builds up its own nuclear arsenal, there is growing concern about the complex "three-body problem" for arms control. Gottemoeller warns that the numbers are still too disparate between the US, Russia, and China, making it difficult to bring them together in negotiations.
While there have been some positive developments, such as Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi publicly rebuking Putin over nuclear weapons, it's unclear whether these efforts will be enough to prevent a new arms race. Gottemoeller notes that the key is for the US, Russia, and China to work together on nuclear stability, given the technological advancements and global tensions.
Ultimately, the expiration of New START represents a significant moment in the history of US-Russia relations. It's unclear what will happen next, but it's clear that the world is moving towards a new era of nuclear politics, one that could be more unstable and unpredictable than ever before.
we need to get these leaders talking ASAP about nukes & all the tech advancements coming out for missiles & AI lol can't believe it's come to this though 15 years down the drain already hope gottemoeller is right that some positive vibes from india & china but seriously who's gonna take the lead on this? US/Russia should've been working together more closely since obama days 
just thinking about the expiration of New START makes me wanna organize my whole life into a grid format 
i mean can we even imagine if the world's nukes are left unchecked? it's like a ticking time bomb waiting to go off 
and with China adding to the mix, it's only gonna get worse... 
the thought of those three powers (US, Russia, China) trying to navigate this "three-body problem" is giving me anxiety 
i need to make a plan, like, yesterday! 
it's like, us and russia have all these nukes, but without limits, both sides could just keep increasing their arsenals, making the whole world more unstable 
but at the end of the day, it seems like we're just going to have to wait and see what happens next 
Trump was always about the bluster, and it's like, come on, dude, let's get real. We need to work together on this one. The world is already a crazy place, and adding all these nukes to the mix? Not good. 
China building up its own nuclear arsenal? Yeah, that's not what we needed. I'm all for diplomacy, but when it comes down to it, do we really have a plan? 
, we're living in a time where nuclear war is more plausible than ever. It's crazy to think that the US and Russia had limits on their nukes for 15 years, now it's all coming undone 
, there have been some positive developments like Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi publicly rebuking Putin over nuclear weapons 
. But we need to get the US, Russia, and China working together on nuclear stability, it's the only way forward 
.
, same thing happened with the new start treaty, nobody wants to negotiate when there's all this tension between us