Vladimir Putin's War of Choice: A Sinking Economy and a Possible Downfall
Russia's economy, which had been artificially propped up by increased defense spending over the past two years, has started to show signs of collapse. The country's oil and gas income, which accounts for up to 50% of state revenue, is down 27% year on year, and inflation is at an alarming rate of 8%. As the war in Ukraine continues to drag on, Putin is facing a perfect storm of economic woes that could ultimately be his downfall.
The latest "peace" deal offered by Donald Trump was rejected by Putin, who remains convinced that he can achieve all of his goals through military force alone. However, Putin's premise is fundamentally flawed. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has resulted in the deaths of over 280,000 Russians and continues to ravage the country's economy.
Russia's refineries, pipelines, and "shadow fleet" of oil tankers carrying illicit exports are all vulnerable to attack from Ukrainian naval drone strikes. Kyiv has identified these weak points and is regularly hitting energy facilities deep inside Russia, causing panic and fuel shortages. As a result, Russia's two energy giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, are struggling to stay afloat as Asian buyers rush to avoid secondary US sanctions.
Putin's economic ruin of Russia is matched by plummeting geopolitical influence. The war has left Moscow isolated, with Syria and Venezuela looking elsewhere for support. Even China, which had previously been a key ally, has turned against Russia due to US pressure.
The "Russia is winning" narrative that has long supported Putin's actions is now increasingly delusional. While there have been some marginal territorial advances, these gains are not as significant as Putin claims them to be. The true extent of the damage caused by the war is only beginning to become clear, with Russia suffering one million casualties since the full-scale invasion began.
The question on everyone's mind is: how much longer will the Russian people tolerate their dictator-president? Putin's willingness to risk the lives and well-being of ordinary Russians is evident in his cynical efforts to exploit poverty and demographic collapse. The latest blood money schemes, which offer death benefits to infantry volunteers from poor rural areas, are a stark reminder of the regime's disregard for its citizens.
A new report by the LSE experts has found that while the war has temporarily boosted the incomes of 20% of Russians, it is hugely socially divisive. For the bulk of Russians, real incomes have fallen by 16-42%. This could lead to deteriorating economic conditions and intensify intra-elite and intra-regime tensions.
The latest US negotiating fiasco has once again exposed Trump's inept Ukraine "strategy". The plan to appease Russia from the start has undermined Ukraine by attacking Zelenskyy and halting arms supplies. Europe must step in with more weapons for Ukraine, reparation loans using seized Russian assets, fully enforced energy sanctions, tougher kinetic responses to sabotage and cyber-attacks, and a more united determination to help end Putin's age of terror.
In the end, it is not Russia that will "win" this war, but rather its leader, Vladimir Putin. His economy is collapsing, his influence is waning, and his people are suffering. As the Russian nation is too big to fail, so too is its dictator-president. He is losing, not winning, and sooner or later, he will be brought down by the very forces he has sought to crush.
Russia's economy, which had been artificially propped up by increased defense spending over the past two years, has started to show signs of collapse. The country's oil and gas income, which accounts for up to 50% of state revenue, is down 27% year on year, and inflation is at an alarming rate of 8%. As the war in Ukraine continues to drag on, Putin is facing a perfect storm of economic woes that could ultimately be his downfall.
The latest "peace" deal offered by Donald Trump was rejected by Putin, who remains convinced that he can achieve all of his goals through military force alone. However, Putin's premise is fundamentally flawed. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has resulted in the deaths of over 280,000 Russians and continues to ravage the country's economy.
Russia's refineries, pipelines, and "shadow fleet" of oil tankers carrying illicit exports are all vulnerable to attack from Ukrainian naval drone strikes. Kyiv has identified these weak points and is regularly hitting energy facilities deep inside Russia, causing panic and fuel shortages. As a result, Russia's two energy giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, are struggling to stay afloat as Asian buyers rush to avoid secondary US sanctions.
Putin's economic ruin of Russia is matched by plummeting geopolitical influence. The war has left Moscow isolated, with Syria and Venezuela looking elsewhere for support. Even China, which had previously been a key ally, has turned against Russia due to US pressure.
The "Russia is winning" narrative that has long supported Putin's actions is now increasingly delusional. While there have been some marginal territorial advances, these gains are not as significant as Putin claims them to be. The true extent of the damage caused by the war is only beginning to become clear, with Russia suffering one million casualties since the full-scale invasion began.
The question on everyone's mind is: how much longer will the Russian people tolerate their dictator-president? Putin's willingness to risk the lives and well-being of ordinary Russians is evident in his cynical efforts to exploit poverty and demographic collapse. The latest blood money schemes, which offer death benefits to infantry volunteers from poor rural areas, are a stark reminder of the regime's disregard for its citizens.
A new report by the LSE experts has found that while the war has temporarily boosted the incomes of 20% of Russians, it is hugely socially divisive. For the bulk of Russians, real incomes have fallen by 16-42%. This could lead to deteriorating economic conditions and intensify intra-elite and intra-regime tensions.
The latest US negotiating fiasco has once again exposed Trump's inept Ukraine "strategy". The plan to appease Russia from the start has undermined Ukraine by attacking Zelenskyy and halting arms supplies. Europe must step in with more weapons for Ukraine, reparation loans using seized Russian assets, fully enforced energy sanctions, tougher kinetic responses to sabotage and cyber-attacks, and a more united determination to help end Putin's age of terror.
In the end, it is not Russia that will "win" this war, but rather its leader, Vladimir Putin. His economy is collapsing, his influence is waning, and his people are suffering. As the Russian nation is too big to fail, so too is its dictator-president. He is losing, not winning, and sooner or later, he will be brought down by the very forces he has sought to crush.
this war is literally draining the life out of russia, both economically and morally... like, who needs that many deaths on their hands? 280k+ russian lives lost so far? it's mind-blowing... and don't even get me started on the global isolation - china's basically ghosted them 
just another example of how he's willing to sacrifice his own people for power. and let's not forget about the economic hit - 27% decline in oil & gas income is no joke 
. Like, dude's economy is literally imploding and his people are suffering. He's basically playing a losing game of chicken with the world and it's only a matter of time before he gets taken down 
The whole "peace" deal thing was just a joke, right? And now Trump is saying what we've been thinking for ages... Putin's lost touch with reality 
He's got his head in the sand and it's gonna be his downfall 
. The economy is literally tanking and people are dying left and right over this war. And don't even get me started on how isolated Russia is now 
. Like, China isn't even supporting them anymore? That's wild.
. It's time for some real action, not just empty words 
.
! This war thingy's been sucking Russia dry for years now, and it's like he won't listen to anyone else's advice. The poor dude's got his head in the clouds, thinking that military power alone can solve everything 
. He's just gonna keep on losing, and sooner or later, his own people will rise up against him 
. I mean, have you seen those death benefits for infantry volunteers? Talk about blood money 
.
. I mean who wouldn't wanna stop fighting a war that's draining ur economy 
. I'm not saying Putin's entirely at fault, but this war rly has to stop ASAP 
. The suffering it's causing Russia and its people can't be ignored 
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Putin's economy is tanking, and I feel bad for the Russian people 
. Can't help but wonder how long Putin's grip on Russia holds out? 
. It's not just Putin's reputation that's at stake, but also the lives of his people 
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. It's time for some major changes, and fast 
. We need more sanctions, more aid for Ukraine, and a lot less tolerance for Putin's antics 
.
. The gains they're making are way overblown and anyone who still thinks Putin's got a strong hand in Ukraine is just being duped 
.
️. We need to put some real pressure on Russia and make Putin regret messing with us 
. Otherwise, he'll just keep getting away with it and Russia will continue its downward spiral